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☆ Capital Economics says strong wage gains mean the Bank of Japan will likely hike rates in March
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCapital Economics says strong wage gains mean the Bank of Japan will likely hike rates in MarchMarcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific for Capital Economics, discusses the outlook for the Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

Persons: Marcel Thieliant Organizations: Email Capital, Bank of, Capital Economics, Bank Locations: Bank of Japan, Asia, Pacific

☆ Dollar a spectator to China news, yen ponders rate risks
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

There was more action in bitcoin , which gained 1.2% to $68,341 after surging more than 7% on Monday. The Japanese yen held steady after data showed Tokyo core inflation sped up to 2.5% in February, from 1.8% the previous month. "Accordingly, we're sticking to our forecast that the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates into positive territory next month." The dollar was a fraction lower at 150.44 yen , having again shied away from resistance around 150.85, which has capped the currency for more than three months now. The European Central Bank, or ECB, holds a meeting on Thursday and markets are convinced it will keep rates at 4.0%.

Persons: Marcel Thieliant, Jerome Powell, Sterling, Jeremy Hunt Organizations: People's Congress, Bank of Japan's, Capital Economics, Bank of, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Westpac, . Finance Locations: China, Tokyo, Japan, bitcoin, United States, Beijing, Asia, Bank of Japan

☆ Australia Oct retail sales slip as consumers hold off for Black Friday sales
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Women shop for clothes on a store in a shopping mall in Sydney's central business district (CBD) Australia, February 5, 2018. REUTERS/Daniel Munoz/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSYDNEY, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Australian retail sales unexpectedly slipped in October as consumers cut back on everything but food, though analysts believe many were merely saving some money to splurge on Black Friday sales that took place this month. Retail sales fell 0.2% from September to A$35.77 billion, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Tuesday. "This is a pattern we have seen develop in recent years as Black Friday sales grow in popularity." Data from e-commerce firm Shopify also showed that point-of-sale sales made by its merchants in Australia during this year's Black Friday sales grew 27% from a year ago.

Persons: Daniel Munoz, Ben Dorber, Shopify, that's, Marcel Thieliant, Michele Bullock, Stella Qiu, Tom Hogue, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Black, ANZ, Asia Pacific, Capital Economics, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Australia

TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares surged higher on Wednesday, cheered by a rally on Wall Street that was one of the best days of the year following a surprisingly encouraging report on inflation. “Accordingly, we expect GDP growth to slow from 1.7% this year to 0.5% in 2024,” he said in a commentary. Tuesday on Wall Street, the S&P 500 jumped 1.9% for its best day since April and hit a two-month high, closing at 4,495.70. On Wall Street, real-estate stocks and others beaten down particularly hard by higher rates soared to some of the market's biggest gains. Elsewhere on Wall Street, Home Depot rallied 5.4% after reporting stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected.

Persons: Marcel Thieliant, ”, Hong, Seng, Australia's, Korea's Kospi, Russell, Brent Organizations: TOKYO, Nikkei, Capital Economics, Shanghai, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal, Technology, Amazon, Nvidia, Treasury, U.S ., Alexandria Real, Bank, Zions Bancorp, Comerica, Valley Bank, Home Depot, New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S Locations: Alexandria, REITs, Wall

☆ Instant View: BOJ modifies bond yield control, re-defines long-term rate cap
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

But it's also likely the BOJ have their finger on the intervention button to cap any runaway rally on USD/JPY." Nevertheless, this is working in a way to increase the volatility of the global rates market. This means it will still have a certain distance until the BOJ exit from the negative rate policy." "A yield cap isn't a yield cap if you change it every time the market gets close." The Bank of Japan could lift the negative policy rate to zero over the coming year.

Persons: Kim Kyung, KYLE RODDA, MATT SIMPSON, JPY, it's, NOMURA, They've, TONY SYCAMORE, normalisation, TAKAYUKI MIYAJIMA, ROB CARNELL, they're, JEFF NG, TOM NASH, OMORI, SHOTARO KUGO, me, IZURU KATO, MARCEL THIELIANT, today's, FREDERIC NEUMANN, CHRISTOPHER WONG, BOJ's, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Bank of, Nikkei, SAXO, SONY, ING, UBS, CHIEF, DAIWA, OF, HSBC, Global, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bank of Japan, MELBOURNE, BRISBANE, SINGAPORE, TOKYO, U.S, SYDNEY, ASIA, PACIFIC, CHIEF JAPAN, stagflation, OF ASIA, YCC, HONG KONG

The data reinforces expectations the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will revise up its inflation forecasts when it produces fresh quarterly projections at next week's policy meeting. The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 2.7% in October from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday, exceeding market forecasts for a 2.5% gain. The so-called "core core" index that strips away both fresh food and fuel prices - closely watched by the BOJ as a gauge of broader price trends - rose 3.8% in October from a year earlier after a 3.9% increase in September, the data showed. "With services inflation continuing to accelerate, it will take a long time before inflation falls back below the BOJ's 2% target." The BOJ remains a global dovish outlier, having maintained ultra-loose policy even as major central banks elsewhere raised interest rates aggressively to fight rampant inflation.

Persons: Androniki, Marcel Thieliant, Takahiko Wada, Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Reuters Graphics, Capital Economics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, Asia

Summary Sept core consumer prices up 2.8% yr/yr vs f'cast +2.7%Core-core index up 4.2% yr/yr in Sept - govtData among factors to come under scrutiny at BOJ's Oct meetingTOKYO, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Japan's core inflation in September slowed below the 3% threshold for the first time in over a year but stayed above the central bank target, keeping alive expectations that policymakers will phase out ultra-easy monetary policy. "While inflation weakened in September, we think inflation will only fall below the BoJ's 2% target by the end of next year," said Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics. The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 2.8% in September from a year earlier - the first time it has slowed below 3% since August 2022, government data showed on Friday. All the same, the rate has tracked above the BOJ's 2% target for 18 straight months. Reporting by Takahiko Wada and Leika Kihara; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Marcel Thieliant, Takahiko Wada, Leika, Muralikumar Anantharaman Organizations: Bank of Japan, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Asia

☆ Japan's business mood improves, capex firm in boost to economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Leika Kihara | Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan’s business sentiment improved in the third quarter, a central bank survey showed, suggesting conditions for a durable economic revival are falling into place even as a global slowdown keeps policymakers cautious about the outlook. Big non-manufacturers’ index stood at 27, up from 23, the survey showed, above a median market forecast of 24 and improving for the sixth straight quarter. The survey showed big manufacturers expect conditions to improve three months ahead, though sluggish global demand and signs of weakness in China’s economy cloud the outlook. “The tankan showed Japan is on track for a domestic-demand led growth. But analysts expect a mild contraction in the July-September quarter as sluggish global demand weigh on exports.

Persons: Maki Shiraki, ”, Marcel Thieliant, Yoshimasa Maruyama Organizations: Nissan, Co, Ltd's, EV, REUTERS, Companies, Bank of Japan, Capital Economics, Big, Nikko Securities Locations: TOKYO, Tochigi prefecture, Japan, Asia, U.S

☆ Japan exports fall for first time since 2021, stoking concerns about outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Ministry of Finance (MOF) data out Thursday showed Japanese exports fell 0.3% in July year-on-year, compared with a 0.8% decrease expected by economists in a Reuters poll. However, manufacturers are braced for core orders to slide during the current quarter, partly due to the impact from weak offshore demand. Japan exports fall for first time since 2021However, the spectre of a sharper global slowdown and faltering growth in its major market China have raised concerns about the outlook. GLOOMY OUTLOOK TO KEEP BOJ ON HOLD"The Bank of Japan must be aware of downside risks from the global economy. Separate data showed Japan's core machinery orders rose 2.7% in June from the previous month.

Persons: Toru Hanai, Takeshi Minami, Minami, Marcel Thieliant, Tetsushi, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Ministry of Finance, Norinchukin Research, Bank of Japan, Manufacturers, Cabinet, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, China, Europe, America, Asia

Japan’s Q2 GDP grows fastest in more than two yearsMarcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, said the export-driven momentum in growth is unlikely to be sustained. Exports expanded 3.2% in the second quarter led by car exports and inbound tourism, while capital expenditure was flat. Strong U.S. and European demand has also supported exports while the post-COVID boom in foreign tourists has given the economy a much-needed tailwind. That boost in external demand, or net exports, added 1.8 percentage points to second quarter growth. It doesn't mean a strong recovery in Japanese economy," said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Marcel Thieliant, Thieliant, Takumi Tsunoda, Shigeyuki Goto, Goto, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, TOKYO, Capital Economics, Private, U.S, Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute, The Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, China

☆ Japan’s economic growth beats forecasts as exports zoom
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

While the headline GDP data provides some relief to policymakers seeking to balance economic growth with sustainable inflation, it masks underlying weakness in the household sector. Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, said the export-driven momentum in growth is unlikely to be sustained. Exports expanded 3.2% in the second quarter led by car exports and inbound tourism, while capital expenditure was flat. Strong US and European demand has also supported exports while the post-COVID boom in foreign tourists has given the economy a much-needed tailwind. That boost in external demand, or net exports, added 1.8 percentage points to second quarter growth.

Persons: Marcel Thieliant, ” Thieliant, ”, Takumi Tsunoda, Shigeyuki Goto, ” Goto Organizations: Tokyo Reuters, Capital Economics, Private, Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute, The Bank of Japan Locations: Tokyo, Asia, China

☆ Australia jobs jump again, heaping pressure on RBA
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The jobless rate held at a downwardly revised 3.5%, when analysts had expected 3.6%, leaving it just above the 3.4% trough from October last year. Markets moved to priced in a 42% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would resume hiking rates in August, compared with 35% before the jobs data. Incoming RBA Governor Michele Bullock has said the jobless rate would need to rise to about 4.5% to curb inflation. "The hotter-than-expected jobs numbers... leave no room whatsoever for an upside surprise in next Wednesday's Q2 CPI data. However, pressure on the RBA to keep pace with its overseas counterparts on rate hikes has eased somewhat in recent weeks.

Persons: Michele Bullock, Tony Sycamore, Marcel Thieliant, Stella Qiu, Wayne Cole, Jacqueline Wong, Jamie Freed Organizations: SYDNEY, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia, Incoming, IG, Capital Economics, Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Australia

☆ Australia's central bank holds rates, signals more hikes might be required
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SYDNEY, July 4 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank on Tuesday held interest rates steady saying it wanted more time to assess the impact of past hikes, but reiterated its warning that further tightening might be needed to bring inflation to heel. Reuters GraphicsIn Tuesday's policy statement, RBA Governor Philip Lowe said that higher interest rates are working to establish a more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy. "In light of this and the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, the Board decided to hold interest rates steady this month." Global policymakers are still grappling with relatively high inflation despite sweeping rate increases for more than a year. Both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are almost certain to hike by a quarter-point this month, which could pressure an already soft Australian dollar.

Persons: Philip Lowe, Lowe, Stephen Smith, Marcel Thieliant, Reuters Graphics Lowe, Stella Qiu, Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: SYDNEY, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters, Deloitte, Capital Economics, Global, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson

☆ Australia's consumer inflation hits 13-month low, adding to rate pause case
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, June 28 (Reuters) - Australia's consumer inflation slowed to a 13-month low in May, driven by a sharp pullback in fuel, while a measure of core inflation also cooled in a sign interest rates might not have to rise again in July. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed its monthly consumer price index (CPI) rose 5.6% in the year to May, marking the smallest increase since April last year. That was down from 6.8% the previous month and well below market forecasts of 6.1%. The core trimmed mean measure of CPI rose by an annual 6.1%, a seven-month low and again down from 6.7% in April. Wednesday's data showed the most significant drivers were an 8.4% jump in housing and a 7.9% increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages.

Persons: Tony Sycamore, Marcel Thieliant, Stella Qiu, Sam Holmes Organizations: SYDNEY, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia, IG, Bank, Capital Economics, Thomson

☆ Expect Japan to enter a recession 'before long,' economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect Japan to enter a recession 'before long,' economist saysMarcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, says the worst is yet to come and he still expects that the U.S. will enter a recession later this year and growth in Europe will remain "extremely weak."

Persons: Marcel Thieliant Organizations: Capital Economics Locations: Asia, U.S, Europe

☆ Japanese yen likely to strengthen toward year-end, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJapanese yen likely to strengthen toward year-end, research firm saysMarcel Thieliant of Capital Economics says one reason is that long-term interest rates in the United States are likely to fall a bit further.

☆ POLL RBA to hike rates further this year, say economists in snap poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

On May 2, the RBA startled economists and financial markets with a hike. Our expectation is that the final rate hike occurs in August. Over 85% of respondents, 25 of 29, expected no hike from the central bank at its June 6 meeting, while four predicted a 25 basis point hike. Among major local banks, only ANZ forecast a 25 basis point hike in Q3 while Westpac and CBA predicted an extended pause. Median forecasts showed the cash rate remaining at 4.10% until year-end, 25 basis points higher than the peak expected in an April poll.

This comes as month-end approaches and investors look ahead to the U.S. central bank's May 2-3 policy meeting. The advance estimate of first-quarter U.S. GDP growth is out this week, and big tech earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon are due. Tesla shares fell 13% last week after an earnings miss, the biggest fall in almost a year. Ueda has insisted that the current policy will remain in place for now, damping down prospects of a shift this week. The central bank's revised inflation and growth forecasts might also give a clue as to when it will tweak or abandon YCC.

While factory output rebounded in February, some analysts warn of mounting downside risks as slumping global demand for technology goods hits the country's exports. Inflation will probably stay elevated at least during the first half of this year," said Yoshiki Shike, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. Separately, factory output rose 4.5% in February from January, better than a forecast 2.7% gain and rebounding from a revised 5.3% drop in January, on easing supply bottlenecks for carmakers. "There's a bigger risk of a downgrade in manufacturers' output plans due to weaknesses in the information-technology (IT) sector. Global demand is shifting away from goods towards services, which is bad news for Japan's export-reliant economy," Shinke of Dai-ichi Life Research said.

☆ Australia's inflation slows to 8-month low in Feb, adding to rate pause case
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, March 29 (Reuters) - Australian inflation slowed to an eight-month low in February, thanks in part to a sharp retreat in holiday travel and accommodation, adding to the case for a pause in interest rate hikes next month. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed its monthly consumer price index (CPI) rose 6.8% in the year to February, the slowest since June last year. Prices excluding volatile fruit, vegetables and fuel rose 6.9% in the year to February, down from 7.5% in January. While many analysts still think the RBA will hike at least once more, some believe it might pause in April before moving in May following inflation data for the first quarter. Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Australia wage growth hits decade high, but misses forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics out on Wednesday showed its wage price index rose 0.8% in the December quarter from the previous quarter, under forecasts of a 1.0% increase. Markets had been braced for an upside surprise and quickly reacted by pushing the Australian dollar down 20 ticks to $0.6847 , while futures scaled back slightly the likely future peak for interest rates. As a result, markets had wagered interest rates could peak as high as 4.35%, but that tempered toward 4.1% following the wages news. The RBA had forecast wage growth of 3.5% for last quarter, so the actual outcome should be a pleasant surprise. "Wage growth was weaker than the RBA had expected last quarter and we think it won’t accelerate as rapidly as the RBA anticipates," said Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia Pacific economics at Capital Economics.

☆ Australia retail sales jump in November, inflation resumes climb
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday showed retail sales jumped 1.4% in November from October to a record A$35.9 billion ($24.7 billion). "High jet fuel prices combined with strong consumer demand in November pushed airfare prices up, with accommodation prices also rising," said Michelle Marquardt, ABS Head of Prices Statistics. The combination of robust consumption and still rising inflation underline the challenge facing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as it tries to cool the economy. "That underlines that interest-rate sensitive spending categories are feeling the pinch from the RBA's aggressive tightening last year," said Thieliant. ($1 = 1.4512 Australian dollars)Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Edwina GibbsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Japan's economy could enter a recession in 2023, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Japan's economy is set to enter into recession as export growth slows, according to Capital Economics. "We think the Japanese economy will enter a recession sometime next year," said Marcel Thieliant, senior Japan economist at Capital Economics, said CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" Tuesday. Exports rose by 25.3%, slower than a year-on-year growth of 28.9% seen in September. Meanwhile, imports jumped 53.5% year-on-year in October, higher than a year-on-year growth of 45% the previous month. That would mean it's already headed for what is commonly categorized as a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

☆ Australia's economy slows in Q3 as higher rates, prices sap spending power
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, Dec 7 (Reuters) - Australia's economy slowed a little in the September quarter as sky-high prices and rising interest rates sapped consumer spending power, a sign aggressive policy tightening is working to cool demand. Household consumption was again the engine of growth with a rise of 1.1% in the quarter, driven by spending on travel, eating out and new motor vehicles. "The decent rise in Q3 GDP probably marks the last hurrah for Australia's economy as tighter monetary policy and falling real incomes weigh on spending," said Marcel Thieliant, a senior economist at Capital Economics. The country is still wading in cash thanks to sky-high prices for many of its resource exports. That helped nominal GDP grow a blistering 13.1% in the year to September to reach a record A$2.38 trillion ($1.59 trillion), or A$91,847 for every Australian.

☆ Japan's economy will probably enter a recession in 2023, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJapan's economy will probably enter a recession in 2023, economist saysMarcel Thieliant of Capital Economics says the recession will be mostly driven by a drop in exports, and it would be "very brave" to tighten monetary policy under such conditions.

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